Investment cycles and resource constraints


Discussion of the use of energy and oil in the economy and per capita. Discussion of investment cycles in oil and gas in monetary terms, and discussion of the physical behaviour of different type of oil fields requiring different type of investments. Discussion of financial returns over the cycles for oil companies, using return on capital employed as a proxy as well as free cash flow generation. Discussion of oil price cycles and economic performance and central bank policy. Discussion of value versus growth strategies of oil companies and their impact on the investment cycles. Discussion of potential impact of current environmental policy and energy transition strategy on investment behaviour. Participant will gain new perspectives of what it means to face business challenges in a
rapidly changing environment faced with resource and political/societal constraints.

Learning objectives

This course will provide the students with insight into the role of energy and oil in particular in the economy; The course will elaborate on how oil investment cycles are autonomous processes subject to investor requirements. The course will address the long cycle profiles which (can) lead to price spikes and price slumps (boom-bust cycles) impacting the global economy and how this is related to central bank policy. The degrowth element is discussed in light of the peak-oil issue (second-half of the age of oil) and the remaining investment potential in oil and gas.

Target audience

Anybody with an interest in understanding the wider context of their business Required level is Master

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Investment cycles

Details of Sections


◉ The role of energy in the economy

◉ Biophysical model of energy and the economy

◉ Macro-context of energy and oil in particular

Resource limits and depletion

◉ Resource distribution

◉ Discoveries

◉ Depletion examples


◉ Monetary policy and oil

◉ Financial market concepts and resources

◉ Energy returns

Financial context and investment behaviour

◉ Investment requirements and investment opportunities

◉ Actual investment and activity levels and their drivers

◉ Financial market pressure in resource constrained world

◉ Investment cycles and the effect on physical supply


Online or on-ground as half-day or one-day sessions with break-outs for short assignments and interactive discussions

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